This caught my eye this A.M. We are #1 then Manitoba..No more sleepy little provinice for us... Saskatchewan is sitting on everything the world wants. The west is best!
Sask. growth tops in CanadaConference board predicts 4.2 per cent GDP increase for province in 2008
Joanne Paulson, The StarPhoenix
Published: Thursday, August 07, 2008
Saskatchewan's economic growth will lead the provinces this year with a 4.2 per cent increase in GDP, substantially higher than the 3.6 per cent predicted for second-place Manitoba, the Conference Board of Canada said Wednesday.
"While 'the west is the best' still holds true, attention this year has shifted away from Alberta to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as high prices for nearly all of their natural resources will make them the two fastest-growing economies in Canada," said Glen Hodgson, senior vice-president and chief economist, in the board's provincial outlook report.
"Resource-rich Saskatchewan is poised to enjoy another year of stellar growth and Manitoba's economy remains unfazed by hardship in the U.S. and Central Canada."
Commodity prices are fuelling the conference board's optimism for this year. It expects the Saskatchewan economy to perform well in 2009, but GDP growth will moderate to 2.8 per cent, the board forecasts.
However, "there is certainly upside potential to real GDP growth next year," the board added.
Among the economic drivers are high prices for agricultural products, boosted by flooding in the midwestern U.S. and by the flight of American farmers to growing corn for ethanol.
Soaring oil and gas prices have turned more attention to Saskatchewan resources. The board noted land sale revenues so far this year have totalled $605.4 million, more than double the last record of $250.3 million for all of 2007.
The prices of oil and gas have fallen off 20 per cent in the last few weeks, but Todd Crawford, an economist with the Conference Board, says the board does not see that as a permanent trend. Crawford says oil will not return to the $55 to $60 US per barrel price. Rather, the board is placing oil at an average of $123 US per barrel for 2008.
Oil is very volatile right now, due to several factors, said Crawford.
"We've seen a demand push-back from the record prices of $145 US per barrel. We've seen demand in all industrialized countries slow significantly. We've even seen the lifting of subsidies in non-industrialized countries.
"Demand is slowing, but the other thing is we've seen prices spike particularly because of geopolitical tensions centred around the Middle East."
Events such as ongoing attacks on oil workers in Nigeria were affecting prices, but those issues have eased off.
"Those things have not disappeared completely, but they have at least disappeared to the background," said Crawford. "Prices seem to have at least temporarily peaked. . . but next year and five years down the road, prices will inevitably rise."
Oil capacity remains "extremely tight," especially in the Middle East, so the market is still susceptible to supply shock, said Crawford.
A sustained high oil price is good news for Saskatchewan, creating a lot of jobs and increasing incomes, he added.
"It has quite a few spin-off effects for Saskatchewan."
The effects have come in the form of in-migration, which has been strong in 2008 with more than 1,800 residents moving into the province. The economy is expected to create 11,000 jobs this year.
But with stronger growth expected in Alberta next year, the board sees interprovincial in-migration subsiding in Saskatchewan.
After Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Alberta will still see the third-best growth in 2008 at 2.6 per cent. B.C.'s economy will grow by 2.2 per cent.
Declining exports, particularly in the auto sector, will result in national growth of 1.7 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2009, said the board.
jpaulson@sp.canwest.com
No comments:
Post a Comment